A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
